Despite persistent concerns over inflation and affordability, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan remains optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy, citing strong consumer spending as the key factor sustaining economic momentum.
Speaking at the Axios House News Shapers Summit in Washington, D.C., Moynihan acknowledged that while affordability pressures are affecting many households, consumer spending has remained robust. According to him, this continued willingness to spend is providing a solid foundation for economic growth.
“There is a ‘say-do’ paradox,” Moynihan observed, explaining that although Americans often express pessimism about the economy in surveys, their actual spending habits tell a different story. “The question is, what are people actually doing?” he remarked.
Spending Patterns Reflect Economic Strength
Moynihan noted that consumer spending increased by approximately 6% during the second quarter compared to the same period last year. Based on these spending trends, he expects the U.S. economy to expand by at least 2% in 2026, reinforcing his positive outlook despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
While affordability remains a genuine concern for many households, Moynihan emphasized that continued consumer activity is helping support businesses, employment, and overall economic performance.
World Cup Boosts Retail Activity
Bank of America’s research also highlighted the economic impact of the recent FIFA World Cup, which generated increased consumer activity across host cities in the United States.
According to aggregated Bank of America credit and debit card data, brick-and-mortar spending at restaurants and bars increased by 5.3% year-over-year in host cities during the three weeks ending June 27. By comparison, spending in the rest of the country rose 3.8% over the same period.
Interestingly, those host cities had previously trailed the national average in retail spending, suggesting that the tournament significantly boosted local economic activity. The figures also exclude spending by international visitors, indicating the overall economic impact was likely even greater.
Confidence Amid Economic Uncertainty
Moynihan’s optimistic outlook has remained consistent despite challenges such as global trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts. Earlier this year, he expressed confidence that resilient consumer demand would continue to support the economy even as public sentiment weakened.
Following Bank of America’s recent revenue growth, Moynihan again credited what he described as a healthy economic backdrop supported by resilient consumers.
Looking Beyond the Federal Reserve
Discussing monetary policy, Brian Moynihan said he expects policy continuity if Kevin Warsh assumes leadership of the Federal Reserve. Having known Warsh since the George W. Bush administration, Moynihan described him as someone likely to maintain the Fed’s traditional role rather than pursue dramatic policy shifts.
More broadly, however, he argued that the U.S. economy should not be viewed primarily through the lens of central bank actions. Instead, he believes the true measure of economic health lies in the behaviour of consumers and businesses.
Summing up his perspective, Moynihan remarked that the economy performs best when attention is focused on real economic activity rather than monetary policy, underscoring his belief that consumer spending remains the strongest indicator of America’s economic resilience.
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